NWS Tucson Arizona520 North Park Ave, Suite 304Tucson, AZ 85719(520) 670-6526Comments? (100 percent delivery time) Weekly sea-surface temperature anomalies in degrees Celsius from early Sept. through early Oct. 2022. A warmer February is also possible from the mid-Atlantic states into the rest of the Southeast, Southern Plains westward into New Mexico and eastern Arizona. If you're planning to visit Arizona in the near . And that would bring a significantly colder risk to much of the northern U.S. this winter, according to Crawford. Our forecasts are not direct predictions of rain/snow. The Climate Prediction Center forecasts for temperature a 36% chance that they will end up above normal and a 31% chance that they will end up below normal. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec December Odds are tilted toward a colder than average winter from the Northern Plains and Great Lakes to northern New England. The average yearly temperature of 56.8 is six-tenths of a degree BELOW normal and ranks as the 27th warmest on record through the end of March. Areas from the Gulf Coast to the Southern Plains and mountain West are most favored to see above-average temperatures for the entire three-month winter period from December through February, according to an outlook released Thursday by The Weather Company, an IBM Business, and Atmospheric G2. Dating back to 1910, every year has had a least one daily rainfall record be broken. The metro area for most of the month remained under a favorable monsoon flow pattern that brought daily round of showers and thunderstorms which produced strong gusty winds, heavy rain and flash flooding. He also said that in its more than 200 years of printing, only seven people have done the weather, with each working for about 30 or 40 years andthey have applied that sameformula. BOOKMARK THE MAIN WEBSITE BY CLICKING HERE. On your streaming device:Download 12News+ to your streaming device. According to its forecast map, Arizonas fall theme will be cool with decent precipitation.. Dry and warmer temperatures were on tap from the 17th to the 22nd. Weather Forecast Legend WeatherTAB helps you plan activities on days with the least risk of rain. March 2023; April 2023; May 2023; June 2023; July 2023; August 2023 . The recently released NOAA U.S. Winter Outlook made the predictions Thursday, bringing the news that widespread extreme drought is expected to persist throughout the West. According to the CPC, there is a 66% chance that La Nia conditions could last from November 2021 to January 2022. Discover our growing collection of curated stories on Washington State. The Climate Prediction Center forecasts for temperature a 44% chance that they will end up above normal and a 23% chance that they will end up below normal. The drought classification for the area degraded to D2 (Severe Drought) during May. The first five months were rather dry with the airport only recording 0.67" or 2" below normal. How to get these alerts with a premium subscription via e-mail by micro-climate zone AND/OR Get the GPS models for all events on your device enabled? It begins just at the backend of Arizonas monsoon season, which officially comes to a close on Sept. 30. For us across the Southwest, La Nia typically brings drier-than-normal conditions during the winter. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration It's also the ninth time February this century that the average monthly temperature was below normal. Additionally, there were five record temperatures that were either set or tied. Local News Sports Politics Opinion For Subscribers . In central Arizona, its mild and fair, and sometimes rainy. Additionally the airport monthly total extended the streak of below normal rainfall for March to "18" straight. Outside of work, you can likely find her curled up on the sofa with a hot cup of coffee, watching a crime TV show or scary movie. CLICK HERE TO GO, The following articles were talked about in this write-up, November 5, 2021 Temperature extremes for the month ranged from a high of 103 on the 6th to a low of 65 on the 17th. The forecast for precipitation is a 33% chance that they will be above normal and a 33% chance that they will end up below normal. The combined two-day rainfall totals for New Year's Eve/Day across the metro area ranged from 0.50" to 1.50" with the bulk of the rain occurring on New Year's Eve. Precipitation: Equal chances use the map provided below. Weather; Archive; Weather Widget F. Arizona weather in January 2024 The temperatures in Arizona in January are quite cold with temperatures between 48F and 66F, warm clothes are a must. The last seven days of the month was dry with below normal high and low temperatures. Blistering, Record-Breaking Heat Lytton, B.C. And for only the 9th time since 1895, rainfall was recorded on both New Year's Eve & Day with the most recent being in 2018-19 & 2016-17. It begins just at the backend. Weather Today Weather Hourly 14 Day Forecast Yesterday/Past Weather Climate (Averages) Currently: 36 F. During 2020,2021 and the first half of 2022 . The previous two occurrences were in 1984 & 2010. Yuck. Its the best time of year to visit if youre a fan of hiking, for example. This is the 7th June on record in which the monthly low temperature did not fall below 65. Precipitation: Below Average There are indications that weak cutoff systems under the raging jet could bring more precipitation to Tucson than say even Phoenix, but the amount just doesnt look so high, but bears watching for that area sometime mid-month. The first day of winter and the shortest day of the year, officially arrives on December 21, 2022, but that doesn't always mean that the cold temperatures and snow storms will wait until then. Essentially, the formula uses sunspot activity andthe effect the moon has on the earth to be able to predict weather about two years in advance. The newest edition of the 230-year-old series projects the 2021-22 winter as a particularly cold one, dubbing it the "season of shivers." The almanac's editor, Janice Stillman, says it could even . If you are NOT receiving the e-mails and are a full member, your account is either expired or you need to troubleshoot. Questions? Officially the Tucson International airport recorded 1.82", which is around eight-tenths of an inch below normal and ranks as the 48th driest Winter season on record. Generally, cool areas of the country are expected to see significant snowfalls before the start of December, although the almanac predicts Thanksgiving could have good weather in most areas of the U.S. Christmas, on the other hand, could be unsettled with either rain or snow depending on your local temperatures, the almanac says. Best for planning. There were only seven days that recorded triple digit highs, which is eight days below the normal of 15 days for August. Monsoon 2022 ended up warmer than normal with an average season temperature of 87.2 which is nine-tenths of a degree above normal. After a week of travel, a bout with a head cold, and a new A-fib diagnosis, hiked some beautiful country with the Britts. While there were no companion predictions for central and southern Arizona, Geiger said the cold from the north will likely permeate the south, making it comparatively cold for the states lower deserts. ajgarrison - Flickr According to the Farmers Almanac winter weather forecast for Arizona, the 2022-2023 winter season will be a milder affair this year though drier than average, too. There were five days that recorded freezing low temperatures at the airport which is up from the three that occurred in the previous winter but down five from the 1991-2020 normal period. The International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, was on the dry side as just over one and a third of an inch /1.34"/ was recorded. During the first 16 days of the month, no below normal highs were recorded. The table below shows the breakdown for highs, low maximums and high minimums. The official start of fall is only about a month away, with the Autumn Equinox on Sept. 22. Feb March 2023 . She attended college in the Houston area and changed her major twice (psychology, computer science, and finally criminal justice) before taking a leap of faith and dropping out to pursue a career in freelance writing. Click on the images below for the year, monthly and seasonal snapshots! This ranks as the 5th warmest monsoon on record, tied with 2011. Will the huge Tongan volcano eruption last January have a role? The average yearly temperature, through the end of October, of 74.4 is 0.9 above normal and ranks as the 7th warmest on record. For comparison through the end of March, the current climate normal period (1991-2020) average temperature is 57.4 while the previous climate normal period (1981-2010) average temperature was 56.1. Colder air and blocking weather pattern often develop when the polar vortex is weak. Weather Forecast Office. "We have no strong reason to favor a super-weak vortex like we had in winter 2020-21 at this time, and feel this winter be more like last winter," Crawford said. Temperature extremes ranged from a high of 111 on June 16th to a low of 66 on June 5th. SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS. The second Pacific storm of the month moved across the area on the 12th bringing with it widespread valley rain and mountain snow. This update comes as Arizona sits deep in drought. La Nia is expected to be the main driver for the third winter in a row. Our Office; Monsoon; Monsoon Safety; SE Arizona drought page; . Our weather forecast can give you a great sense of what weather to expect in Arizona in January 2024. Coming off one of the WETTEST years on record in 2021 where the airport recorded 15.19", the outlook called for enhanced probabilities for below normal rainfall through the Spring season then equal chances for below, near or above normal rainfall for the remainder of the year. We are going to show you their forecast for the upcoming winter, but first, a warning. Rainfall occurred across the metro area over three time periods during the month. Winter in Arizona is always a mixed bag. April climate data across southeast Arizona. Combined with last years August average temperature being 1.2 below normal, this is the first back-to-back Augusts since 2005-06 to be below normal. Keep in mind this outlook is an overall three-month trend. "We continue the remarkable drive toward a third consecutive La Nia winter, a relatively rare occurrence in our recorded history, with the last three-peat occurring from 1998-2000," said Dr. Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2. In long range forecast, Los Angeles is used as a base. The monthly average temperature of 84.7 is just under 2 above normal and ranks as the 4th warmest September on record, tied with 2010. So what's in store? Last year, the Almanac predicted many of the 2021-2022 winter storms, most notably: the early-season nor'easter in the end of October, and the unusual blizzard in the last week of April (in parts of Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas). 830 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2023. The temperatures in Arizona in February are comfortable with low of 11 C and and high up to 21 C.. We say absolutely! Temperature extremes for Fall ranged from a high of 103 on September 6th to a low of 36 on November 26th. Expect a few rainy days but usually not more than 3. The coldest periods will be in late November, mid- and late December, and mid-January. . In a couple of words: its nice! What are some fun things to do in the winter in Arizona? The forecast panned out well with Spring 2022 coming in warmer and drier than normal. Winter is a great time to hike the Grand Canyon (just be careful of ice), and its also a fun time to go camping in the milder central and southern parts of the state. By Paul Rusnak | September 11, 2022. In winter 2020-21, the polar vortex weakened, and even though La Nia was in place, a major cold outbreak contributed to the 19th-coldest February on record in the Lower 48. On your phone:Download the 12News app for the latest local breaking news straight to your phone. hit 113.9 degrees F, 45.5 degrees C. Amazing. Please select one of the following: Tucson, AZ Standard Radar (low bandwidth), NOAA NCEI State Climate Summary for Arizona, 2022, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Please select one of the following: Tucson, AZ Standard Radar (low bandwidth), NOAA NCEI State Climate Summary for Arizona, 2022, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The Climate Prediction Center forecasts for temperature a 35% chance that they will end up above normal and a 32% chance that they will end up below normal. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued a La Nia Watch on Thursday for the potential re-emergence of La Nia conditions by the fall. The last March to record above normal rainfall was in 2004 when 1.12" was recorded. The monthly average temperature of 71.8 is just under four degrees above normal and ranks as the 4th warmest April on record. For the most part, it looks like fairly, you know, pleasant, quiet kind of weather in September and a good part of October, Geiger said. Detailed Phoenix Weather Forecast for November 2022 - day/night temperatures, precipitations - World-Weather.info. Winter temperatures are once again expected to be split between a warmer than average South and colder than average North, with colder risks in parts of the East. Temperatures: Below Average, Arizona The airport needs to record around 0.37" of rain during December to escape being ranked in the top 10 driest years on record. Here in the Valley, showers will be off and on throughout overnight. All NOAA. Copyright 2021 Scripps Media, Inc. All rights reserved. Rainfall amounts across the metro during the first three months of the hydrologic water year has ranged from 1.10" to 3.50". The forecast for precipitation is a 49% chance that they will be up below normal and a 18% chance that they will end up above normal. If you are a current member and NOT on a monthly plan, your Winter 2022 tier expires March 1st, but do not renew until the Spring 2022 tier is opened, which youll receive an email then. As always, stay tuned toArizona Weather Forcefor official forecasts and updates on weather across Arizona and if it says like page below, hit the button and get future updates. One exception was the pandemic year of 2020, when travel all but came to a. You can enjoy epic winter activities like Arizona Snow Bowl, and you can even go sledding iFarmers' Almanac winter forecastn Arizona (or snow tubing in Arizona) too. World; United States; Arizona; Weather in Phoenix; Weather in Phoenix in November 2022. A Strong 2024 La Nina and a new "Cold Pacific Ocean Phase" will usher in Dangerous .